How Much Will the Super El Niño Hike Texas Heating Bills?
Winter Heating Cost Study Warns Texans to Prepare
Houston, Texas — Rising food and gasoline costs are already swelling Texas family budgets. Now a very strong El Niño could increase heating costs and raise the family electricity bill. While this weather pattern usually warms most of the country, it historically brings cooler, wetter winters to Texas. January and February typically bring the chilliest days but if the El Niño disrupts the Polar Vortex in December then early cold waves could frost the whole state.
To help families plan before the cold arrives, our analysts gathered usage data and heating costs for every state and sorted them by the four main heating fuels: electric, natural gas, propane, and heating oil. By averaging how many homes use each fuel in each state, analysts are able to offer a more realistic average monthly heating costs.
You can find the study here: https://www.texaselectricityratings.com/resources/texas-winter-heating-costs-by-state-2026
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/sY1NW/2/
Among all states, Texas ranks 15th for the lowest winter heating costs. While the state enjoys cheap electric prices, its climate plays a crucial role in keeping it warm in winter. Hawaii and Florida rank first and second, mostly because few homes in these warm climate states have heaters at all. At the other end, Alaska, Maine, and Vermont post the highest weighted averages. New Englanders as a whole face the highest monthly costs from high fuel oil prices.
Across Texas, the typical heating bill reaches $106.21 per month. Over a typical five month heating season, Texans should expect to pay about $530. Electricity heats 51% of homes, natural gas heats 42%, and propane heats 2%. Electricity costs the least, at about $70.70 per month, while natural gas costs the most, at about $161.21. However, for any heating system, newer, high efficiency models should run below these averages.
Nationally, heating costs have climbed since 2024. Electricity rose 9.93%, natural gas rose 33.70%, propane rose 9.42%, and fuel oil rose 44.44%. Texas ranks 11 for the least increase to costs. The average monthly heating cost rose 10.15%, from $96.42 to $106.21 per month. Natural gas drove that increase, climbing 15.49% from $139.59 to $161.21 per month. However, electricity heating costs rose by only 1.73%.
Meanwhile, high gas storage and strong production have kept prices lower in recent months. The EIA expects homes in the Midwest, South, and Northeast that heat with natural gas or propane to spend 10 to 15% less than last winter. Homes on the West Coast may spend 7% more.
When combined with lower heating consumption in northern states this winter, springtime could see a blossoming of cheaper electricity rates in Texas and in other states. However, it may be only for a brief time before hotter conditions fire up the air conditioning season in southern states. Texas consumers should plan ahead this spring to watch for falling electric rates and choose power providers with the best deals.
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Lumanex LLC operates an energy management platform and a network of energy shopping websites across 11 states across 56 utilities, providing our advisory, comparison and ratings service to over 58 million residential and commercial customers. We provide our customers with the power to choose the best providers through our consumer reviews platform and provide a reliable, unbiased, source of valuable consumer insight, advice, in-depth energy company service evaluations, and personalized recommendations.
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