Will the Super El Niño Raise Your Texas Heating Bill?
How Much Will Texans Pay for Heat This Winter?
Texans are facing rising costs for food and gasoline. This year, a very strong El Niño is expected to bring a warmer than average winter for much of the U.S. Unfortunately in Texas, El Niños historically have tended to bring cooler and wetter than average winter weather to the Lone Star state instead. Even if you have a great rate from the best electricity provider, a normal winter can spike your monthly electric use and cost you more. So this winter, much of Texas could see more bouts of chilly, snowy weather.
Getting a better understanding about how much it may cost to heat a home before winter starts will go a long to help families that are struggling with affordability. In order to help consumers prepare for these costs, we’ve gathered up heating costs for each state and broken them out into the four primary heating fuels.
Comparing Heating Usage Data
For this update we took monthly consumption data from the EIA 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). This is largely because the most recent EIA's 2024 REC data will not be available until after the new year. And with the heating season not quite yet begun and some heating fuel prices surging, we wanted consumers to get this information as soon as possible.
Heating usage data from the 2020 RECS, however, remains relevant to this coming winter. Home heating consumption depends on two main things: first is how cold is it outside and, second, how long must you run your heater to warm your home. While there was no El Niño, the 2019-2020 winter was notably mild so homes needed less heat during those months.
When it comes to El Niños in Texas, however, things get more complicated. Recent winters in Texas have been warmer than average but punctuated by severe cold blasts. Historically speaking, El Niños tend to bring wet winters with the chilliest temperatures arriving in January and February. This year's powerful El Niño may also stretch or destabilize the Polar Vortex from its place over the north pole. As a result, starting in late December into early January, Texans could see periodic waves of bitter cold that drive up their heating use.
Natural Gas Prices During El Niño
Some thirty mostly-northern states rely mainly on natural gas for winter heating. Natural gas also fuels nearly half of the electric generators throughout the country. For this reason, the winter heating demand for natural gas plays an important role in determining how high electricity costs may go at the start of spring.
Due to El Niño's weather effects, the EIA expects homes in the midwest, south, and northeast that use natural gas and propane as their main source of space heating to spend 10 to 15% less on average than last winter. Homes on the west coast, however, could spend 7% more.
EIA also forecasts homes that use electricity as the main heating source will spend slightly more this winter owing to higher wholesale prices. This is especially true in the PJM area where wholesale prices in 2026 are set to increase by 41%.
At present, natural gas prices are lower due to high inventories of stored gas as well as high production numbers. Factor in a good potential for low-heating demand and it is possible that natural gas supplies could still be higher than average at the traditional end of the heating season in late March. For deregulated energy states like Texas where consumers have the power to choose their own energy provider, this bodes very well for 2027 energy bills. That's because electricity prices and natural gas prices may likely be lower, albeit for a brief time, before the AC season fires up. This makes springtime a great time to shop for cheap electricity plans for your home or business.
How Do Texas Heating Costs Compare?
According to energy consumption data from the 2020 RECS, 51% of Texas homes use electricity for heating. Natural gas comes in second at 42%, and propane at 2%. Of these, natural gas is the most expensive heating fuel while electricity is the cheapest. So, with almost half of the state using electricity, the weighted average monthly heating cost runs about $106.00.
| State | Electricity | Natural Gas | Propane | Heating Oil | Weighted Average cost per month | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Primary Heating | Average Cost/Month | % Primary Heating | Average Cost/Month | % Primary Heating | Average Cost/Month | % Primary Heating | Average Cost/Month | ||
| Texas | 51% | $70.70 | 42% | $161.21 | 2% | $122.29 | 1% | N/A | $106.21 |
And, since Texas usually sees about 5 months with heating degree days, an average winter heating cost can run about $530.00.
Homes with natural gas furnaces, however, should expect to pay more this winter. Natural gas heat for an average Texas home runs about $161.00 per month.
One point that's important to bear in mind here is that RECS data does not differentiate between the specific fuel costs for high efficiency types of heating systems vs standard models or their ages. It just looks at the average heating fuel consumption for each type of system. Homes with newer high-efficiency heating systems can expect lower costs.
All the same, however, the data confirms that electricity has the lowest monthly cost for heating.
How Do Texas Heating Costs Rank with Other States?
When it comes to winter heating costs, location is everything.
Texas ranks 15th for the lowest average winter heating cost. Part of this is due to the fact that the state has relatively cheap energy but mostly it's because Texas is located in the southern U.S. Indeed, first place Hawaii and second place Florida have the lowest average winter heating costs, but that's partly because only a fraction of homes bother to have heating systems installed. In fact, while Hawaii has the highest monthly electric rates in the U.S. (48 cents per kWh), monthly heating costs in a home that actually has heat averages about $9.84.
Which Heating Fuel Costs More?
While doubling fuel oil prices have grabbed headlines, only four states rely on that as the main heating fuel. While fuel oil remains a major heating source in New England, it still plays a role in many mid-Atlantic states, as well.
About 20% of Alaskans rely on it because it is an easy way to provide heat to its widely scattered towns and settlements. Due to its climate, the state has some of the highest heating in the nation.
Heating Oil
| State | Average cost per month |
|---|---|
| Alaska | $602.61 |
| Connecticut | $408.59 |
| Massachusetts | $407.65 |
| New Hampshire | $402.77 |
| Rhode Island | $393.24 |
| Vermont | $358.45 |
| Maine | $341.21 |
| New York | $332.07 |
| New Jersey | $315.18 |
| Pennsylvania | $313.37 |
Propane
| State | Average cost per month |
|---|---|
| New York | $311.06 |
| New Hampshire | $263.96 |
| Wyoming | $258.76 |
| Michigan | $250.27 |
| Vermont | $240.62 |
| Illinois | $221.66 |
| Ohio | $209.63 |
| Wisconsin | $207.27 |
| Indiana | $205.82 |
| Massachusetts | $203.56 |
Natural Gas
| State | Average cost per month |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma | $333.98 |
| Kentucky | $315.62 |
| Maine | $288.06 |
| Alaska | $275.63 |
| North Dakota | $273.43 |
| Arkansas | $268.46 |
| Georgia | $267.03 |
| Missouri | $259.20 |
| West Virginia | $246.58 |
| Washington | $238.50 |
Electricity
| State | Average cost per month |
|---|---|
| Hawaii* | $196.84 |
| West Virginia | $144.83 |
| Washington | $124.95 |
| Oklahoma | $116.85 |
| Alaska | $116.82 |
| Kentucky | $114.88 |
| Oregon | $114.14 |
| Arkansas | $107.45 |
| Pennsylvania | $104.52 |
| Indiana | $104.31 |
* Hawaii is well known for having the highest electricity rates in the U.S. The islands each have their own grid and rely mainly on diesel fuel to make electricity. However, the islands are in a tropical climate, which means the real heating usage is almost negligible. Some Hawaiian homes may have electric heat installed, but they may not actually use it regularly.
Ten States With Highest Average Bill
Accurately determining a state's average winter heating costs is far more involved than just adding up the four monthly fuel costs and dividing by four. Afterall, the most expensive fuel available in a state might only be used by 0.3% of its households. But, its high cost will distort the calculated average cost for what most consumers pay. In the case of heating oil, the distortion can be several hundred dollars.
In order to find realistic costs, we use a weighted average for each state. That is, the monthly cost of each heating fuel multiplied by the percentage of homes using it. We then used these amounts to create a weighted average monthly cost.
This scales back the impact of expensive fuels used in only a few homes in the average monthly cost for the state. As a result, consumers can see more realistic costs for heating systems that they're actually likely to use.
| State | Primary Heating Fuel | Weighted Average Cost For Heating |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Natural Gas | $316.92 |
| Maine | Fuel Oil | $251.89 |
| Vermont | Fuel Oil | $245.30 |
| New Hampshire | Fuel Oil | $243.00 |
| Connecticut | Fuel Oil | $238.85 |
| Massachusetts | Natural Gas | $230.69 |
| Oklahoma | Natural Gas | $226.45 |
| Rhode Island | Natural Gas | $212.75 |
| New York | Natural Gas | $204.91 |
| Pennsylvania | Natural Gas | $198.86 |
Ten States With Lowest Average Bill
| State | Primary Heating Fuel | Weighted Average Cost For Heating |
|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | Electricity | $9.84 |
| Florida | Electricity | $26.85 |
| Arizona | Electricity | $31.70 |
| Nevada | Natural Gas | $38.02 |
| New Mexico | Natural Gas | $52.90 |
| California | Natural Gas | $56.48 |
| Utah | Natural Gas | $64.97 |
| Louisiana | Electricity | $66.01 |
| Idaho | Natural Gas | $77.46 |
| Montana | Natural Gas | $83.75 |
Heating Costs Compared: 2024 vs 2026
Heating fuel costs have risen from 2024 but at different rates depending on the state.
- Electricity + 9.93%.
- Natural Gas + 33.70%
- Propane + 9.42%
- Fuel Oil + 44.44%.
Only four states saw their average heating fuel costs go down:
- Nevada -17.33%
- New Mexico -3.77%
- Rhode Island -2.17%
- Utah -3.81%
Ten States With Steepest Rising Heating Costs
| State | 2024 Weighted Average Cost | % Change | 2026 Weighted Average Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | $143.84 | 60.38% | $230.69 |
| Kentucky | $126.54 | 55.66% | $196.97 |
| Wisconsin | $90.95 | 55.59% | $141.51 |
| Pennsylvania | $129.37 | 53.71% | $198.86 |
| Michigan | $124.47 | 52.93% | $190.35 |
| Maine | $165.94 | 51.80% | $251.89 |
| Iowa | $115.65 | 50.78% | $174.38 |
| Indiana | $119.72 | 45.53% | $174.23 |
| Kansas | $104.30 | 44.08% | $150.28 |
| Wyoming | $135.06 | 42.44% | $192.38 |
Ten States With the Least Change in Heating Costs
| State | 2024 Weighted Average Cost | % Change | 2026 Weighted Average Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | $45.99 | -17.33% | $38.02 |
| Utah | $67.54 | -3.81% | $64.97 |
| New Mexico | $54.97 | -3.77% | $52.90 |
| Rhode Island | $217.48 | -2.17% | $212.75 |
| Florida | $26.00 | 3.27% | $26.85 |
| Arizona | $30.39 | 4.31% | $31.70 |
| Alabama | $100.58 | 5.51% | $106.12 |
| Ohio | $160.61 | 7.12% | $172.04 |
| Louisiana | $60.82 | 8.53% | $66.01 |
| California | $51.36 | 9.97% | $56.48 |
Texas ranked #11 for the least change with heating costs rising 10.15%. The average weighted monthly cost went from $96.42 per month in 2024 to $106.21 in 2026. While the monthly electricity cost for heating rose, it was only by 1.73%. The price for natural gas, however, was the main driver for the cost increase. Price went from $139.59 per month to $161.21 per month, rising about 15.49%.
Winter Heating Costs FAQs
Will El Niño affect my Texas heating bill?
It could. A strong El Niño is expected to bring a warmer than average winter to much of the U.S., but El Niños have historically brought cooler and wetter winters to Texas. Starting in late December into early January, Texans could see periodic waves of bitter cold that drive up heating use. Even a normal winter can spike your monthly electric use, so it helps to compare your usage with normal kWh usage for a Houston home.
Do many Texas homes use heating oil in winter?
No. Only about 1% of Texas homes use heating oil. Electricity is the most common heating fuel at 51%, followed by natural gas at 42% and propane at 2%. Heating oil is mainly used in New England and parts of the mid-Atlantic, and only four states rely on it as their main heating fuel. With most Texas homes on electric heat, it pays to compare plans before winter, whether you're shopping Dallas electricity rates or rates elsewhere in Texas.
How much have Texas heating costs increased in recent years?
The weighted average cost to heat a Texas home rose 10.15%, from $96.42 a month in 2024 to $106.21 in 2026. Natural gas was the main driver, climbing about 15.49% from $139.59 to $161.21 a month. The monthly electricity cost for heating rose only 1.73%. For a longer look at how prices have moved, see our Texas electricity rate history.
How do Texas heating costs rank with other states?
Texas ranks 15th for the lowest average winter heating cost. That's partly because the state has relatively cheap energy, but mostly because of its location in the southern U.S. Hawaii and Florida have the lowest costs at $9.84 and $26.85 a month, while Alaska has the highest at $316.92. Even with lower costs than most states, a good rate from one of the best Texas electricity companies can help keep winter bills down.
Can winter heating demand in northern states affect Texas electricity prices?
Yes. Some thirty mostly-northern states rely mainly on natural gas for winter heating, and natural gas fuels nearly half of U.S. electric generators. That makes winter heating demand for gas an important factor in how high electricity costs may go at the start of spring. If gas supplies stay higher than average in late March, Texas electricity prices may be lower for a brief time before the AC season, so whether you're watching Houston electricity rates or plans elsewhere in Texas, that dip is worth keeping an eye on.
What is the average monthly cost to heat a home in Texas?
About $106.21 a month, based on a weighted average of the heating fuels Texas homes use. Electric heat, used by 51% of homes, averages about $70.70 a month. Natural gas heat averages about $161.21, and propane about $122.29. Over a typical 5-month heating season, that adds up to about $530. Your own cost depends on how much energy you use, so it helps to know the average kWh per month for a typical home.
Methodology
The RECS 2020 annual household site end-use energy consumption data is measured in mmBtus. Household consumption information for all four fuels was converted into each one's respective market unit (kWh, ccf, and gallons). Monthly costs for each fuel was then easily calculated from there. Energy prices came from the most recent EIA reports available for 2026 for each fuel.
In order to find the weighted average cost, we multiplied each heating fuel price by the percent of its use in a state (according to the 2020 RECS). We then added up the products to find the weighted average cost. This produced an average cost that reflects what most consumers in a state pay for heating while scaling back the high cost effect of fuels that only a few homes use.
References
Consumption & Efficiency, Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/index.php?view=state
Populations in All Age Groups Growing in the South, Driven by Outlying Counties in Metro Areas
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/vintage-2025-pop-estimates.html
Heating Oil and Propane Update
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/
Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wfr_a_EPLLPA_PRS_dpgal_w.htm
Natural Gas Monthly
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/
Electric Power Monthly
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/index.php
Energy Insights: Residential Natural Gas Prices Expected to Drop
https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/energy-insights-residential-natural-gas-prices-expected-to-drop/
EIA expects gas, propane-heated US homes to spend less this winter
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eia-expects-mixed-picture-us-households-winter-fuel-costs-this-year-2026-10-06/
US power use to beat record highs in 2026 and 2027 as AI use surges, EIA says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-power-use-beat-record-highs-2026-2027-ai-use-surges-eia-says-2026-10-06/
